Over the next three years, total visitor numbers to Bali are expected to increase by 26.3 percent, from 14.4 million in 2017 to 18.2 million in 2020, according to a major new report Short-Term Forecasts of Visitor Arrivals in Bali, 2018-2020, released by Hotel Investment Strategies, a New York-based hotel investment advisory firm.

Strong gains in international visitor arrivals will lead to 7.5 million international visitors in 2020, up 32 percent from 5.7 million in 2017. With a similar outlook for growth, domestic visitors from mainly East Java, Central Java and Jakarta will account for 10.7 million domestic visitors in 2020, up 22 percent from 8.7 million on 2017.

The forecasts are not likely to meet the target of 8 million foreign visitors by 2019 set by Bali’s tourism industry, which is aiming to attract 40 percent of Indonesia’s total foreign tourist arrival target in 2019. “There is about a 17 percent probability that the 8 million target could be reached”, says, Ross Woods, the founder & CEO of Hotel Investment Strategies.

“Not everyone understands the concept of forecasting. It tends to get mixed up with goal setting. There is nothing wrong with a target of 8 million international visitors, but our forecast of 6.8 million international visitors in 2019 represents the most likely outcome given past trends and
current information.”

According to the report, China will remain Bali’s largest international source market, followed by Australia and India. Lion Air is currently opening 20 new routes between China and Indonesia as part of the group’s strategy to deliver 2.5 million foreign tourists to Indonesia. Between 2017 and 2020 inbound visitor arrivals to Bali from ASEAN countries are expected to grow by 47 percent from 428,000 in 2017 to 629,000 in 2020. Over the next three years, total visitor numbers from Asia-Pacific countries are expected to increase by 20.7 percent from 3.5 million in 2017 to 4.3 million in 2020.